MLB Rotation Preview - Tampa Bay Rays
The starting rotation of the Tampa Bay Rays is full of elite arms that are all finally healthy at the same time.
The Tampa Bay Rays have six strong options for their 2025 rotation. The Rays have consistently been able to churn out successful pitchers at the MLB level, but their bugaboo has been their ability to keep them healthy. In 2024, Zach Littell led all Rays pitchers with only 156 1/3 innings. The second most was Ryan Pepiot with 130. Around the trade deadline last year, the Rays shipped starters Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale to the Orioles and Brewers, respectively, and then this offseason sent Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics. Of the Rays six options for their 2025 rotation, all of them saw time on the Injured List in 2024.
(2024 innings; games started):
Shane McClanahan (missed entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery)
Zack Littell (156 1/3; 29)
Taj Bradley (138; 25)
Ryan Pepiot (130; 26)
Shane Baz (79 1/3; 14)
Drew Rasmussen (28 2/3; 16 G, 4 GS)
Shane McClanahan:
The lefty is the presumed ace of the staff after turning in three consecutive strong seasons in 2021, 2022, and 2023, but a late-season elbow injury in 2023 caused him to miss all of 2024. In 2023, McClanahan featured the classic four-pitch mix of four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph places him in the 90th percentile, and his secondary offerings grade out above average, showing impressive versatility and depth. The command of his pitches, coupled with his velocity, makes him one of the most dangerous left-handers in the league.
The changeup is his second most utilized pitch, and it proved to be his most effective in 2023. It averages 86.9 mph and led all of baseball with a Whiff% of 54.5%. This devastating movement makes it nearly unhittable for right-handed hitters, as evidenced by its high whiff rate. The Run Value on his changeup was 10, placing him 8th among pitchers who threw at least 350 changeups, but when boiled down to RV/100, he ranked tied for 5th with a 2.1. Notably, he was tied with Logan Webb, whose total Run Value on his changeup led baseball with a remarkable 28.
McClanahan’s rapid rise through the Rays system was a testament to his talent and work ethic. Drafted 31st overall in 2018, he made his major league debut during the 2020 playoffs, quickly becoming an integral part of the team. His strong performances in both the regular season and postseason showcased his poise under pressure.
Shane McClanahan strikes out Leody Taveras swinging on a changeup.
Zack Littell
The Rays 2024 innings leader differentiates himself from the rest of the rotation options as his fastball is the only one that does not average 95 mph or faster (Pepiot’s 94.9 mph average is second slowest). A reliable strike thrower, Littell’s BB% the past two seasons have been in the 99th and 94th percentile. His statcast numbers are not kind, but with the ability to maintain his health for most of the season, he seems primed to start throughout the season. Where Littell finds his effectiveness is with his elite command. His top notch control is displayed by his low walk rates, but his command is much stronger than that. Using Fangraphs’ Location+ metric, which is a count and pitch adjusted stat that focuses solely on pitch location and not movement or velocity, Littell’s combined arsenal overall registers at 108 which places him tied for 9th in baseball among pitchers with at least 150 innings in 2024 (Pablo López led baseball with a 113). In dissecting Littell’s arsenal further, the Location+ on his fastball is tied for 3rd at 112, only one behind the tied leaders of Shota Imanaga and Erick Fedde, and his splitter ties Imanaga for best Location+ on that pitch with 109. The key to Littell’s success in 2024 will be to stay healthy and keep his command sharp. He lacks the overpowering arsenal that his fellow rotation mates possess, but he has put together two strong seasons in Tampa and with an oft-injured rotation, Littell will likely have to shoulder the load like he did in 2024.
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley’s 2024 season was an overall success; he posted a 4.11 ERA in 138 innings with 154 strikeouts. Contributing heavily to his ERA being over 4 was a disastrous month of August where in 23 1/3 innings, Bradley allowed 27 earned runs. For comparison, he next highest monthly ERA was June where has allowed 13 earned runs en route to a 3.62 month ERA. He has strong swing and miss metrics with his Chase %, Whiff %, and K% all being in the 65th percentile of better. Where Bradley has struggled is with the power numbers against him. His average exit velocity allowed was in the 2nd percentile. His struggles with limiting hard contact can be attributed to his reliance on the middle of the strike zone.
Turning 24 years old just days before the Rays’ opener, there is tremendous upside from Bradley’s arm. With 18.7 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on his four seam fastball, averaging 96.4 mph, the pitch has elite levels of rise (T8th IVB; min 750 fastballs). Further, Fangraphs ranks the Stuff+ on his fastball, cutter, and splitter to all be well above average. Primarily focusing on the velocity, spin, and movement of the individual pitch, his fastball ties him for second with fellow rotation mate Ryan Pepiot at 108, second only to Seattle’s Bryce Miller at 109. His cutter, which leapfrogged the splitter as his second most used pitch at the end of the season, measured in at a Stuff+ rating of 107. The 107 puts him fourth behind perennial Cy Young candidates Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes and budding star Garrett Crochet. Lastly, his splitter grades out as the fifth best behind the Mariners’ trio of young righties, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller, and new Met Frankie Montas. With three well above average pitches, Taj Bradley is well positioned to build on the success of 2024 and hopefully avoid another month long clunker.
Ryan Pepiot
Ryan Pepiot was the crown jewel of the trade last offseason that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers and his first year in Tampa was a success. Compiling a 3.60 ERA in 130 innings sets Pepiot up nicely for an increased share in 2025. As mentioned in the previous paragraph about Bradley, Pepiot’s fastball is his most effective. With a Stuff+ of 108 and a Run Value of 10, opponents hit only .181 against the pitch. It averages 94.9 mph and has 19.4 inches of IVB, good for 4th in the league. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup, slider, and rarely uses a cutter or curve.
His changeup is perplexing. From the eye test, it looks like a filthy pitch, but some of the metrics are not kind to it. A -6 Run Value, .240 xBA, and .340 xSLG would lead some to think it is a bad pitch, but Pepiot still manages to use it effectively and it got progressively more effective throughout the season. For September, the xBA and xSLG on his changeup were down to .203 and .240. If we isolated his September numbers and them as a full-year sample, the xBA on his changeup would put him 14th and xSLG would be 3rd best. A common theme among the Rays’ projected rotation is the young, uber talented starter that needs to put it together for a full season, and Pepiot is no exception. For 2025 Pepiot should break his career high in innings which he set last year at 130, and build on the September success of his secondary offerings.
Ryan Pepiot strikes out Jarren Duran swinging on a changeup:
Shane Baz
Shane Baz missed all of 2023 and saw his 2024 season not start until July while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His surface level numbers were strong last year, a 3.06 ERA in 79 1/3 innings, but when digging deeper into his numbers, they are rather confusing. His two most used pitches are the four-seam fastball and slider, but they are also his two worst pitches.
xBA/xSLG/xwOBA/Hard Hit %
Four-seam Fastball: .226/.384/.316/47.1%
Slider: .237/.447/.338/40.4%
Curveball: .203/.302/.243/38.0%
Changeup: .194/.343/.249/30.0%
His overall arsenal places him in the 78th percentile for xBA, but his Chase % (6th percentile), Whiff% (42nd), K% (38th), Hard Hit% (21st) all place him into strange territory for someone who throws as hard as he does. Some of the reason behind his metrics could be re-acclimating to the league after missing a season and a half due to elbow surgery because most of his numbers stayed constant or improved slightly throughout the season. Shane Baz has not been healthy and on the big league roster for an opening day yet in his career, but 2025 is likely to change that.
Drew Rasmussen
Missing the second half of 2023 and not making his season debut until August 7th, 2024 while recovering from having an internal brace placed to repair a torn UCL, Rasmussen remains a cautionary pick for 2025. Having already had two Tommy John surgeries, this third operation raises serious questions about his durability and ability to start. Last season, Rasmussen appeared in 16 games, starting 4 of them, but he never pitched more than 2 innings. Similar to the aforementioned pitchers, Rasmussen possesses an elite arsenal. He relies heavily on his fastballs, with 94.6% of his pitch usage being a four-seam, two-seam, or cut fastball. Small sample size in 2024, but his four-seam fastball was strong at limiting hits with a .182 xBA, and he was rather unlucky with his two-seam fastball. The xBA for the pitch was a solid .170, but the actual BA was .316.
Limited to only 73 1/3 innings combined between 2023 and 2024 after a career high 146 in 2022, it remains to be seen how the Rays will utilize him. If he is healthy enough to do so, it is likely he will find a spot in the rotation where he pitched to a 2.84 ERA in that career best 2022. The Rays are known for their creativity with their pitching management and with Rasmussen’s success as both a starter and reliever, it is possible Rasmussen secures the 6th starter/long reliever/opener role that the Rays have made popular.