Baseball's Best Fastball
Cleveland's Cade Smith finished his 2024 rookie campaign 9th in Cy Young voting, 5th in Rookie of the Year, and with baseball's best four-seam fastball.
In 2024, the Cleveland Guardians bullpen posted a brilliant 2.57 ERA and the backend will all return in 2025. Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase each pitched in 74 or more games and combined for 11.1 bWAR and a 1.49 ERA.
Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Emmanuel Clase all had the best seasons of their career in 2024, but Cade Smith burst onto the scene, and in his rookie campaign received Cy Young votes and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year race. The key to Smith’s success is his four-seam fastball that he utilizes 69% of the time.
Using Baseball Savant’s Run Value metric, Cade Smith’s fastball graded out as a 28, good for the best of any pitch in baseball last year. Averaging 96 mph, opponents hit .174 and slugged .253 against the fastball. With a minimum of 200 plate appearances against, the .174 mark ranks second among all four-seam fastballs, tied with Bowden Francis, and behind Aaron Nola (.168). The .253 slugging is the best by 20 points. His traditional numbers are backed by his Statcast Expected Stats of a .191 xBA and .311 xSLG.
His fastball has 16 inches of rise with 8.5 inches of arm side tail and is best utilized when thrown at the top of the zone.
Cade Smith’s heat map on swings and misses on his four-seam fastball:
Cade Smith strikes out Kyle Farmer on an up-and-in four-seam fastball:
Using Whiff%, Cade Smith’s fastball registered as the sixth best in baseball (minimum 150 PA), and third among relievers behind fellow flamethrowers Mason Miller and Michael Kopech. Of all pitches, Smith’s four-seam fastball was the most effective put away pitch; generating a Put Away % of 31.4.
As pitchers and catchers start to report to Spring Training, the Guardians will look to replicate their bullpen success in 2025 and Cade Smith will build upon a dominant rookie season.