<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Harry’s Substack]]></title><description><![CDATA[My personal Substack]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!U5wC!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Febcb03f7-2684-4bc4-8b6a-8fddc647b3a3_144x144.png</url><title>Harry’s Substack</title><link>https://www.harrypaul.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 11:39:16 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.harrypaul.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[harryapaul@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[harryapaul@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[harryapaul@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[harryapaul@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Forrest Whitley...finally]]></title><description><![CDATA[After a tumultuous journey, the 2016 first rounder is finally getting his shot at the highest level.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/forrest-whitleyfinally</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/forrest-whitleyfinally</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 22 Apr 2025 22:40:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg" width="1456" height="931" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:931,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:389937,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/i/161920184?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Lr5-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd3bf34d-601d-4d1a-a71c-ced78ea895c7_2521x1612.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p>Last night, Forrest Whitley made his season debut.  Over two innings of work, Whitley operated in the 95-97 mph range on his sinker and complemented it with two distinct breaking balls&#8212;a slurve and a curveball&#8212;in the low-mid 80s.  He struck out 2 and the only runner to reach base did so on a dropped third strike.  Yesterday&#8217;s outing brings his career MLB innings total to 5 1/3, which given his journey since being drafted, is 5 1/3 innings more than many expected.  Now a full-time relief pitcher, Whitley has the stuff to be a dominant backend arm for the Houston Astros this season and beyond.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;124f76c7-f58d-4ff4-b283-ddaca8639375&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Drafted 17th overall in 2016, Forrest Whitley quickly emerged as a top prospect, reaching a peak ranking of 7th overall in 2019 and being named the top-ranked pitching prospect by MLB Pipeline in both 2018 and 2019.  In his first full season, Whitley reached Double-A, joining only Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Zack Greinke, and Dylan Bundy as high school-drafted pitchers to achieve that level in their first professional season.  He would excel in his 14 1/3 innings with the AA Corpus Christi Hooks, allowing only 3 earned runs and posting a 26:4 K:BB ratio.</p><p>In February of 2018, Whitley was hit with a 50 game suspension for violating the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.  The follow up to his strong 2017 would be put on hold until June 8th, 2018 when he would pitch 4 scoreless innings for the Hooks, surrendering only 1 hit and striking out five.  His truncated season would be cut even shorter by a nagging oblique injury.  He finished 2018 with only 26 1/3 innings pitched, 11 earned runs allowed (7 of them in one outing), and 34 strikeouts.  The following season could generously be described as a disaster.  He reached as high as AAA, but posted a 12.21 ERA in 24 1/3 innings there and suffered through a myriad of injuries.  From there, Forrest Whitley would not pitch in a professional game until 2022.</p><p>COVID dissolved the 2020 minor league season and in March of 2021 Whitley had Tommy John surgery which knocked him out for the entire season.  His return to professional baseball was rocky.  In 2022 and 2023, at the AAA level, he combined to pitch only 63 innings, posting a 6.43 ERA.  His 2023 would also end prematurely when he suffered a lat strain in May.  </p><p>2024 proved to be a breakthrough year for Whitley.  The Astros&#8217; decision to transition him into a full-time reliever paid immediate dividends, with a 1.89 ERA in 33 1/3 innings at AAA, followed by an unblemished start to his MLB career.  Given the obstacles since being drafted&#8212;suspension, a plethora of injuries, and the uncertainty of the COVID pandemic&#8212;Whitley&#8217;s perseverance and the Astros&#8217; decade long faith in him are now being rewarded.  If his 2025 debut was any indication, Whitley looks well-positioned to make an impact in the backend of the Astros bullpen this season</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.harrypaul.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/p/forrest-whitleyfinally?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.harrypaul.com/p/forrest-whitleyfinally?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Griffin Canning - 2025 Breakout Candidate]]></title><description><![CDATA[With a new team and revamped pitch arsenal, Griffin Canning has turned in a dominant spring.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/griffin-canning-2025-breakout-candidate</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/griffin-canning-2025-breakout-candidate</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 17 Mar 2025 21:34:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp" width="1200" height="800" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:800,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:66954,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapaul.substack.com/i/159285887?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GeEZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faac03a73-64bf-4ab7-9be3-13fa7f0edd76_1200x800.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Griffin Canning in 2025 Spring Training via Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images</figcaption></figure></div><p>Griffin Canning turned in another strong spring training outing today.  Facing the Rays, Canning threw 4 2/3 innings surrendering three hits, one earned run, one walk, and struck out nine.  This outing brought Canning to an even 10 innings pitched for the spring with a 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts.</p><p>Originally drafted in the second round in 2017 by the Los Angeles Angels, Canning battled a plethora of injuries since debuting in 2019 before throwing a career high 171 2/3 innings in 2024.  His numbers last year were less than ideal as he allowed 174 hits (7th most in AL), 105 runs with 99 of them earned (both most in AL), 31 home runs allowed (2nd most), and 66 walks (6th most).  A change of scenery and a strong spring could be what Canning needs to piece together a full, strong season.  Traded this offseason to Atlanta for Jorge Soler and subsequently non-tendered, Canning signed a one year, $4.25 million contract with the Mets.</p><p>At the time of signing, Canning seemed to be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot, but after injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Canning is projected to hold the fifth rotation spot.</p><p>Canning&#8217;s spring success can be attributed to the notable adjustments to his pitch usage, shifting away from his previously fastball-first approach.  He has increasingly relied on his slider, with his four-seam fastball and changeup serving as secondary pitches.  Additionally, he rounds out his arsenal with a sinker that he uses solely against right handed hitters and a cutter that he primarily throws to lefties.  Though the sample size is limited, Canning threw his slider 36 times today, accounting for 50.7% of his total pitches, and generated nine whiffs on 20 swings.  Overall, he threw 71 pitches, tallying 13 whiffs on 33 swings&#8212;a 39% whiff rate, a significant improvement over his 24.5% whiff rate in 2024.  While it&#8217;s still spring training, Canning&#8217;s performance offers considerable optimism for a Mets rotation already plagued by injuries.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Harry&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Jackson Flora - UCSB Gauchos]]></title><description><![CDATA[The sophomore right-hander dazzled again last night as his fastball hit 102 mph.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/jackson-flora-ucsb-gauchos</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/jackson-flora-ucsb-gauchos</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 23 Feb 2025 18:24:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp" width="1456" height="819" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:819,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:55480,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapaul.substack.com/i/157754682?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQyz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F307f417c-a83e-43bd-bfa0-89e22f6a8b14_1920x1080.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Jackson Flora via. UCSB Baseball</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><p>In last night's 7-5 victory for the Gauchos over the San Diego State Aztecs, sophomore right-hander Jackson Flora continued his hot start to the season, throwing six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and two walks.  Flora&#8217;s stellar outing followed a dominant season debut against the Campbell Camels last week, where he completed five shutout innings, surrendering only three hits, one hit batter, and striking out six.</p><p>Standing at 6'5" and weighing 205 pounds, Flora possesses the prototypical build for a pitcher.  He relies on a pitch mix that includes a fastball in the upper-90s that registered at over 100 mph on occasion according to the stadium scoreboard last night.  In addition to his fastball, Flora has a slider that he manipulates well into a mid-80s cutter or a low-80s sweeper with a ton of glove side bite and occasionally will flash a changeup in the upper-80s.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg" width="522" height="264" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:264,&quot;width&quot;:522,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:27080,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapaul.substack.com/i/157754682?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Z_b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3d97574-4168-414c-ae52-0654d381e06a_522x264.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Scoreboard velocity reading for a Jackson Flora fastball last night.  Picture from @Stitch_Head on Twitter/X</figcaption></figure></div><p>With Jackson Flora emerging as a dominant force on the mound this season and Tyler Bremner ranked as MLB.com&#8217;s 4th overall draft prospect, the Gauchos have forged what could be the most formidable 1-2 punch in all of college baseball.  If Flora maintains this level of performance throughout the rest of this season and next, he&#8217;s poised to become one of the top names called in the 2026 MLB Draft. </p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;f8c3ccaa-f1b7-4294-b20a-498a33cea181&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Harry&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share Harry&#8217;s Substack&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.harrypaul.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Harry&#8217;s Substack</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[MLB Rotation Preview - Tampa Bay Rays]]></title><description><![CDATA[The starting rotation of the Tampa Bay Rays is full of elite arms that are all finally healthy at the same time.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/mlb-rotation-preview-tampa-bay-rays</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/mlb-rotation-preview-tampa-bay-rays</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 20 Feb 2025 23:29:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg" width="1200" height="1200" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1200,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:109842,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapaul.substack.com/i/157479277?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Yyx7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd06c77b-28f1-455b-8936-698a049753ba_1200x1200.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Shane McClanahan.  Picture from Sports Illustrated.</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><p>The Tampa Bay Rays have six strong options for their 2025 rotation.  The Rays have consistently been able to churn out successful pitchers at the MLB level, but their bugaboo has been their ability to keep them healthy.  In 2024, Zach Littell led all Rays pitchers with only 156 1/3 innings.  The second most was Ryan Pepiot with 130.  Around the trade deadline last year, the Rays shipped starters Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale to the Orioles and Brewers, respectively, and then this offseason sent Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics.  Of the Rays six options for their 2025 rotation, all of them saw time on the Injured List in 2024. </p><p>(2024 innings; games started):</p><p>Shane McClanahan (missed entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery)</p><p>Zack Littell (156 1/3; 29)</p><p>Taj Bradley (138; 25)</p><p>Ryan Pepiot (130; 26)</p><p>Shane Baz (79 1/3; 14)</p><p>Drew Rasmussen (28 2/3; 16 G, 4 GS)</p><p></p><p><strong>Shane McClanahan:</strong></p><p>The lefty is the presumed ace of the staff after turning in three consecutive strong seasons in 2021, 2022, and 2023, but a late-season elbow injury in 2023 caused him to miss all of 2024. In 2023, McClanahan featured the classic four-pitch mix of four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph places him in the 90th percentile, and his secondary offerings grade out above average, showing impressive versatility and depth. The command of his pitches, coupled with his velocity, makes him one of the most dangerous left-handers in the league.</p><p>The changeup is his second most utilized pitch, and it proved to be his most effective in 2023. It averages 86.9 mph and led all of baseball with a Whiff% of 54.5%. This devastating movement makes it nearly unhittable for right-handed hitters, as evidenced by its high whiff rate. The Run Value on his changeup was 10, placing him 8th among pitchers who threw at least 350 changeups, but when boiled down to RV/100, he ranked tied for 5th with a 2.1. Notably, he was tied with Logan Webb, whose total Run Value on his changeup led baseball with a remarkable 28.</p><p>McClanahan&#8217;s rapid rise through the Rays system was a testament to his talent and work ethic. Drafted 31st overall in 2018, he made his major league debut during the 2020 playoffs, quickly becoming an integral part of the team. His strong performances in both the regular season and postseason showcased his poise under pressure.</p><p><em>Shane McClanahan strikes out Leody Taveras swinging on a changeup.</em></p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;85db6ca9-6022-4de5-ae36-161c4285da3b&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Zack Littell</strong></p><p>The Rays 2024 innings leader differentiates himself from the rest of the rotation options as his fastball is the only one that does not average 95 mph or faster (Pepiot&#8217;s 94.9 mph average is second slowest).  A reliable strike thrower, Littell&#8217;s BB% the past two seasons have been in the 99th and 94th percentile.  His statcast numbers are not kind, but with the ability to maintain his health for most of the season, he seems primed to start throughout the season.  Where Littell finds his effectiveness is with his elite command.  His top notch control is displayed by his low walk rates, but his command is much stronger than that.  Using <em>Fangraphs&#8217;</em> Location+ metric, which is a count and pitch adjusted stat that focuses solely on pitch location and not movement or velocity, Littell&#8217;s combined arsenal overall registers at 108 which places him tied for 9th in baseball among pitchers with at least 150 innings in 2024 (Pablo L&#243;pez led baseball with a 113).  In dissecting Littell&#8217;s arsenal further, the Location+ on his fastball is tied for 3rd at 112, only one behind the tied leaders of Shota Imanaga and Erick Fedde, and his splitter ties Imanaga for best Location+ on that pitch with 109.  The key to Littell&#8217;s success in 2024 will be to stay healthy and keep his command sharp.  He lacks the overpowering arsenal that his fellow rotation mates possess, but he has put together two strong seasons in Tampa and with an oft-injured rotation, Littell will likely have to shoulder the load like he did in 2024.</p><p></p><p><strong>Taj Bradley</strong></p><p>Taj Bradley&#8217;s 2024 season was an overall success; he posted a 4.11 ERA in 138 innings with 154 strikeouts.  Contributing heavily to his ERA being over 4 was a disastrous month of August where in 23 1/3 innings, Bradley allowed 27 earned runs.  For comparison, he next highest monthly ERA was June where has allowed 13 earned runs en route to a 3.62 month ERA.  He has strong swing and miss metrics with his Chase %, Whiff %, and K% all being in the 65th percentile of better.  Where Bradley has struggled is with the power numbers against him.  His average exit velocity allowed was in the 2nd percentile.  His struggles with limiting hard contact can be attributed to his reliance on the middle of the strike zone.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png" width="1228" height="304" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:304,&quot;width&quot;:1228,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:67572,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapaul.substack.com/i/157479277?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7_9E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F447ee45a-fc24-48d4-8b43-957e8e796944_1228x304.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Taj Bradley&#8217;s 2024 strike zones on all pitches.</figcaption></figure></div><p>Turning 24 years old just days before the Rays&#8217; opener, there is tremendous upside from Bradley&#8217;s arm.  With 18.7 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on his four seam fastball, averaging 96.4 mph, the pitch has elite levels of rise (T8th IVB; min 750 fastballs).  Further, <em>Fangraphs</em> ranks the Stuff+ on his fastball, cutter, and splitter to all be well above average.  Primarily focusing on the velocity, spin, and movement of the individual pitch, his fastball ties him for second with fellow rotation mate Ryan Pepiot at 108, second only to Seattle&#8217;s Bryce Miller at 109.  His cutter, which leapfrogged the splitter as his second most used pitch at the end of the season, measured in at a Stuff+ rating of 107.  The 107 puts him fourth behind perennial Cy Young candidates Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes and budding star Garrett Crochet.  Lastly, his splitter grades out as the fifth best behind the Mariners&#8217; trio of young righties, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller, and new Met Frankie Montas.  With three well above average pitches, Taj Bradley is well positioned to build on the success of 2024 and hopefully avoid another month long clunker. </p><p></p><p><strong>Ryan Pepiot</strong></p><p>Ryan Pepiot was the crown jewel of the trade last offseason that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers and his first year in Tampa was a success.  Compiling a 3.60 ERA in 130 innings sets Pepiot up nicely for an increased share in 2025.  As mentioned in the previous paragraph about Bradley, Pepiot&#8217;s fastball is his most effective.  With a Stuff+ of 108 and a Run Value of 10, opponents hit only .181 against the pitch.  It averages 94.9 mph and has 19.4 inches of IVB, good for 4th in the league.  He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup, slider, and rarely uses a cutter or curve.  </p><p>His changeup is perplexing.  From the eye test, it looks like a filthy pitch, but some of the metrics are not kind to it.  A -6 Run Value, .240 xBA, and .340 xSLG would lead some to think it is a bad pitch, but Pepiot still manages to use it effectively and it got progressively more effective throughout the season.  For September, the xBA and xSLG on his changeup were down to .203 and .240.  If we isolated his September numbers and them as a full-year sample, the xBA on his changeup would put him 14th and xSLG would be 3rd best.  A common theme among the Rays&#8217; projected rotation is the young, uber talented starter that needs to put it together for a full season, and Pepiot is no exception.  For 2025 Pepiot should break his career high in innings which he set last year at 130, and build on the September success of his secondary offerings.</p><p><em>Ryan Pepiot strikes out Jarren Duran swinging on a changeup:</em></p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;a5f8fd12-e9fa-4b20-b4fc-679a3ed22879&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p> <strong>Shane Baz</strong></p><p>Shane Baz missed all of 2023 and saw his 2024 season not start until July while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  His surface level numbers were strong last year, a 3.06 ERA in 79 1/3 innings, but when digging deeper into his numbers, they are rather confusing.  His two most used pitches are the four-seam fastball and slider, but they are also his two worst pitches.</p><p><em>xBA/xSLG/xwOBA/Hard Hit %</em></p><p><em>Four-seam Fastball: .226/.384/.316/47.1%</em></p><p><em>Slider:                         .237/.447/.338/40.4%</em></p><p><em>Curveball:                  .203/.302/.243/38.0%</em></p><p><em>Changeup:                 .194/.343/.249/30.0%</em></p><p>His overall arsenal places him in the 78th percentile for xBA, but his Chase % (6th percentile), Whiff% (42nd), K% (38th), Hard Hit% (21st) all place him into strange territory for someone who throws as hard as he does.  Some of the reason behind his metrics could be re-acclimating to the league after missing a season and a half due to elbow surgery because most of his numbers stayed constant or improved slightly throughout the season.  Shane Baz has not been healthy and on the big league roster for an opening day yet in his career, but 2025 is likely to change that. </p><p><strong>Drew Rasmussen</strong></p><p>Missing the second half of 2023 and not making his season debut until August 7th, 2024 while recovering from having an internal brace placed to repair a torn UCL, Rasmussen remains a cautionary pick for 2025.  Having already had two Tommy John surgeries, this third operation raises serious questions about his durability and ability to start.  Last season, Rasmussen appeared in 16 games, starting 4 of them, but he never pitched more than 2 innings.  Similar to the aforementioned pitchers, Rasmussen possesses an elite arsenal.  He relies heavily on his fastballs, with 94.6% of his pitch usage being a four-seam, two-seam, or cut fastball.  Small sample size in 2024, but his four-seam fastball was strong at limiting hits with a .182 xBA, and he was rather unlucky with his two-seam fastball.  The xBA for the pitch was a solid .170, but the actual BA was .316.</p><p>Limited to only 73 1/3 innings combined between 2023 and 2024 after a career high 146 in 2022, it remains to be seen how the Rays will utilize him.  If he is healthy enough to do so, it is likely he will find a spot in the rotation where he pitched to a 2.84 ERA in that career best 2022.  The Rays are known for their creativity with their pitching management and with Rasmussen&#8217;s success as both a starter and reliever, it is possible Rasmussen secures the 6th starter/long reliever/opener role that the Rays have made popular.  </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.harrypaul.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Harry&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Baseball's Best Fastball]]></title><description><![CDATA[Cleveland's Cade Smith finished his 2024 rookie campaign 9th in Cy Young voting, 5th in Rookie of the Year, and with baseball's best four-seam fastball.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/baseballs-best-fastball</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/baseballs-best-fastball</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 12 Feb 2025 19:54:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp" width="1128" height="846" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:846,&quot;width&quot;:1128,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:123892,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ncnv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb742f48c-e1ac-4b94-9144-25086e6f7499_1128x846.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p>In 2024, the Cleveland Guardians bullpen posted a brilliant 2.57 ERA and the backend will all return in 2025.  Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase each pitched in 74 or more games and combined for 11.1 bWAR and a 1.49 ERA.  </p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pyh9j/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c5627107-8300-419e-93c5-eb17499f4150_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:334,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;| Created with Datawrapper&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pyh9j/1/" width="730" height="334" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Emmanuel Clase all had the best seasons of their career in 2024, but Cade Smith burst onto the scene, and in his rookie campaign received Cy Young votes and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year race.  The key to Smith&#8217;s success is his four-seam fastball that he utilizes 69% of the time.  </p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;c5f985cd-6c17-4e33-85ae-b47976461aa2&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Using <em>Baseball Savant</em>&#8217;s <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count">Run Value</a> metric, Cade Smith&#8217;s fastball graded out as a 28, good for the best of any pitch in baseball last year.  Averaging 96 mph, opponents hit .174 and slugged .253 against the fastball.  With a minimum of 200 plate appearances against, the .174 mark ranks second among all four-seam fastballs, tied with Bowden Francis, and behind Aaron Nola (.168).  The .253 slugging is the best by 20 points.  His traditional numbers are backed by his Statcast Expected Stats of a .191 xBA and .311 xSLG.  </p><p>His fastball has 16 inches of rise with 8.5 inches of arm side tail and is best utilized when thrown at the top of the zone.</p><p><em>Cade Smith&#8217;s heat map on swings and misses on his four-seam fastball:</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png" width="196" height="278" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:278,&quot;width&quot;:196,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:13267,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dnYP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccae81d5-1c48-4837-91de-045e20c21302_196x278.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><em>Cade Smith strikes out Kyle Farmer on an up-and-in four-seam fastball:</em></p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;36c9d91d-b13e-4f42-bc7c-90405912f648&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Using Whiff%, Cade Smith&#8217;s fastball registered as the sixth best in baseball (minimum 150 PA), and third among relievers behind fellow flamethrowers Mason Miller and Michael Kopech.  Of all pitches, Smith&#8217;s four-seam fastball was the most effective put away pitch; generating a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/putaway-percentage">Put Away %</a> of 31.4.</p><p>As pitchers and catchers start to report to Spring Training, the Guardians will look to replicate their bullpen success in 2025 and Cade Smith will build upon a dominant rookie season.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mississippi State Bulldogs - Opening Weekend Preview]]></title><description><![CDATA[The 20th ranked Bulldogs open the season with a three-game series against Manhattan in Starkville.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/mississippi-state-bulldogs-opening</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/mississippi-state-bulldogs-opening</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 11 Feb 2025 20:30:15 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg" width="1456" height="1165" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1165,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1619505,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FCu6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3081f102-3c40-4f31-98fe-9d272735ffb4_3000x2400.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via @HailStateBB on X/Twitter</figcaption></figure></div><p>The Mississippi State Bulldogs have unveiled their opening weekend rotation as they start the season against Manhattan.  The 20th ranked Bulldogs, per <em>College Baseball Hub</em>&#8217;s composite rankings, will roll out three guys who have experience at the college level, but lack starting pedigree in Starkville.</p><p></p><p><strong>Friday - Pico Kohn - LHP</strong></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lhzNQ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a00f0c90-8450-4bea-ae3e-2b4614b48817_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:199,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;| Created with Datawrapper&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lhzNQ/1/" width="730" height="199" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Mississippi State left-hander Pico Kohn missed all of 2023 and saw a light workload in 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.  Now fully healthy, Kohn is slated to start opening day for the Bulldogs.  Primarily used out of the bullpen as a freshman, Kohn got acclimated to the starting rotation in 2024, but due to his recovery he was limited to four innings and maxed out at 72 pitches in his first 8 appearances.  It was not until his last outing that he surpassed those numbers and went 7 innings on 90 pitches.  At 6&#8217;4&#8221; and 200 pounds, <em>Perfect Game</em> had Kohn ranked as the 148th high school player in the class of 2021.  His repertoire consists of a 92-94 mph fastball, a firm curveball with glove side break that is his best pitch, and a still developing changeup.  He hides the ball well and his motion has a slight hitch that is successful in throwing off a hitter&#8217;s timing.  His friday opponent, Manhattan, is 270th out 305 in RPI, a perfect opportunity for Kohn to start his season off on a high note.  </p><p></p><p><strong>Saturday - Karson Ligon - RHP</strong></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KQJFs/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f673f86a-e3ca-4d19-8608-50db7557f361_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:252,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;| Created with Datawrapper&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KQJFs/1/" width="730" height="252" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Karson Ligon has plenty of high-level starting experience with the Miami Hurricanes as a freshman and sophomore, but since transferring to Mississippi State he has been used almost exclusively as a reliever.  Ligon&#8217;s numbers slid last year and that largely can be attributed to his lack of command.  His BB% more than doubled from 2023 (9%) to 2024 (18.6%).  Perhaps moving Ligon back into a starting rotation will help reset his command and limit the free passes.  His arsenal has no shortage of firepower, so the 2025 goal for Ligon will be to better command his pitches.  He features a three pitch mix, throwing each of them about an equal amount, but could serve to benefit from changing his pitch usage amount.  It may seem daunting to tell a pitcher who struggles with the strike zone to limit his fastball usage, but his secondary offerings grade out so well that it may be necessary.  In the graphic compiled below by @MLBDraftRep on X/Twitter, Ligon&#8217;s four-seam is slightly above average in terms of Stuff+ while his Whiff% and Chase% register as a paltry 14.6% and 9.6%, respectively.  What this means is that when his fastball is thrown, hitters rarely swing and miss.  This becomes a bigger problem when the Expected Weighted Average on Contact (xwOBAcon) comes in at at a .410 on the pitch.  xwOBAcon removes strikeouts, walks, and hit by pitches to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher on balls in play.  The key metrics used are exit velocity, launch angle, and in some cases, sprint speed.  Even with an average velocity of 94.6 mph, Ligon&#8217;s fastball is his third best pitch.  For his secondary offerings, he features a changeup averaging 88.1 mph and a slider at 85.3 mph.  Both pitchers border on elite in terms of Stuff+ with his changeup at 135 and slider at 121.  The Whiff%, Chase%, and xwOBAcon on these pitches perform far better than on his fastball. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg" width="1456" height="1401" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1401,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:497616,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1dFe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f07a700-0d4f-4e7d-9792-3b612be7e931_3115x2997.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Graphic from @MLBDraftRep on X/Twitter</figcaption></figure></div><p>Generating a whiff on 39.2% of his changeups with a 36.1% whiff rate, this pitch is in the conversation for best changeup in college baseball.  With tremendous armside run, his horizontal break of 19.0 would place him second to only Devin Williams (19.4) of all MLB pitchers&#8217; changeups in 2024.  His slider does not generate the same level of chase (17.6%), but it is an extremely effective pitch for him.  When put in play, hitters are generating a measly .180 xwOBAcon. </p><p><em>Karson Ligon uses a changeup to get 2024 2nd round pick Tommy White to strikeout swinging.  Video via <a href="https://x.com/hailstatebb/status/1769133762259136518?s=46">@HailStateBB on X/Twitter</a>:</em></p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;30b23bea-527e-4bfb-acea-42433a9710ad&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Sunday - Stone Simmons - RHP</strong></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jpcyO/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/69180f55-8528-42ed-9932-1d0900ff8340_1260x660.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:252,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;| Created with Datawrapper&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jpcyO/1/" width="730" height="252" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>After tearing his UCL early into the 2022 season, Simmons missed the rest of that season and all of 2023.  As it finally seemed that he regained his health in 2024, he suffered another elbow injury requiring surgery that would lead him to miss all of that season as well.  Simmons&#8217; first game action since 2022 was for the Danville Dans of the 2024 Summer Prospect League.  In four starts there, he threw 14 innings, gave up 9 hits, did not allow an earned run, walked only 3, and struck out 24.  Healthy, at long last, Simmons is looking to carry over his summer league success to this college season.  Since transferring from Furman after COVID shut down the 2020 season, and subsequently the Furman program, Simmons has been used exclusively out of the bullpen for the Bulldogs.  In Mississippi State&#8217;s 2021 championship season, Simmons featured a fastball sitting around 92 mph with a sharp downwards breaking ball that he can spin as both a curveball or harder slider.  After the effort he has put into getting back on the mound, Mississippi State head coach Chris Lemonis is confident in his graduate right-hander.  In an interview with <em>247sports.com</em>, Lemonis was asked about his confidence in Stone physically and mentally, saying that he was &#8220;confident in both,&#8221; but that &#8220;he&#8217;s about a week behind, so building up his volume is the big thing&#8230;he&#8217;s so efficient, maybe the most efficient we have.&#8221;  Given his experience and success on the mound and his dedicated return to pitching, Stone Simmons is definitely a guy to root for in 2025. </p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Best Reliever You Haven't Heard Of]]></title><description><![CDATA[Rockies flamethrower, Seth Halvorsen, is poised for a big 2025.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/the-best-reliever-you-havent-heard</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/the-best-reliever-you-havent-heard</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 07 Feb 2025 23:46:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp" width="1456" height="819" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:819,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:149464,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Bleo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e5749b0-17c1-4a47-bffe-9ed8b02ba2cc_2000x1125.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Colorado Rockies</figcaption></figure></div><p>Seth Halvorsen was the Rockies 7th round pick in 2023 out of the University of Tennessee.  Rising quickly through the system, Halvorsen made his major league debut in 2024 after only 57 2/3 career minor league innings.  His success carried over at the MLB level where, in limited action, he threw 12 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts, and only 2 earned runs.  Both of the earned runs came on back-to-back 9th inning solo home runs by Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts to tie and then win the September 22nd contest in Los Angeles.     </p><p>In a largely inexperienced Rockies bullpen, Halvorsen is slated to compete with Victor Vodnik and veteran Tyler Kinley for the closing role.  What makes Halvorsen such an intriguing piece is his electric fastball.  At the MLB level in 2024, his four-seam fastball averaged 99.9 mph and his sinker averaged 100.1.  Rounding out his arsenal is a pair of high 80s secondary pitches in his splitter and slider.</p><p>Using <em>Fangraphs</em>&#8217; Pitching+, Halvorsen grades out at 121, which puts him 10th among all pitchers last year with at least 10 innings pitched (qualified leader was Corbin Burnes, 119).  For pitchers that are currently rostered by the Rockies, Victor Vodnik ranks second with a 100.  In comparison, other late season call ups for the Rockies, Jaden Hill (10 2/3 innings) and Luis Peralta (12 1/3) each posted a Pitching+ of 82.  Individually, three of Halvorsen&#8217;s pitches grade out above average using Stuff+ with his four-seam at 103, sinker at 119, and his slider at 124.  His splitter tracks slightly below the average of 100 at 98. </p><p><em>Enjoy this video of Halvorsen spotting up 101 mph to complete the strikeout (from <a href="https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1835870805051208056?lang=en">Pitching Ninja X/Twitter</a>:</em></p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;74f783ed-2848-4570-bf8b-342446381b83&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>As the Rockies head into 2025, they will look to continue developing Halvorsen, and the team has already begun acclimating him to high-leverage situations.  In 2024, 8 of Halvorsen&#8217;s 12 appearances were in the 9th inning, showcasing the team&#8217;s quick trust in his ability to handle pressure.  He converted 2 of 3 save opportunities, and with his electric arsenal and an impending full season workload, the Rockies have high hopes for him.  The Rockies 2025 bullpen is full of young flamethrowers looking to prove themselves and Halvorsen has the ability to be the best of the bunch.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2025 College Baseball - Pitching Transfers - SEC]]></title><description><![CDATA[Zach Root, Landon Beidelschies, Liam Doyle, Tanner Franklin, Cade Fisher, and Myles Patton highlight a strong transfer class for the SEC.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/2025-college-baseball-pitching-transfers</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/2025-college-baseball-pitching-transfers</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 06 Feb 2025 20:35:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp" width="1456" height="970" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:970,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:103580,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AKJp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b75137c-13c6-4652-b8e3-423fe2906b99_2000x1333.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Zach Root.  Photo via East Carolina University Athletics</figcaption></figure></div><p><strong>Zach Root and Landon Beidelschies attempt to fill the gap left by Hagen Smith.</strong></p><p>The Arkansas Razorbacks lost left-hander Hagen Smith to the MLB draft (5th overall, Chicago White Sox) and look to replace him with a pair of high profile transfers.  Fellow left-handers <strong>Zach Root </strong>(East Carolina) and <strong>Landon Beidelschies </strong>(Ohio State) have been brought in to try and fill the hole left by the Golden Spikes finalist.  Root, a junior, was the number two starter for East Carolina last year behind 2024 first rounder Trey Yesavage (20th, Toronto Blue Jays).  A strong 2024 in his own right, Root threw 68 1/3 innings with a 3.56 ERA.  With a funky, deceptive motion, Root struck out 76 hitters last year relying on a strong repertoire of pitches.  His fastball sits in the low-mid 90s, but flashed 97 on a few occasions.  The strength of his arsenal comes from his secondary offerings; a low 80s changeup and a high 70s to low 80s sweeping curveball.  Per <em>Baseball America</em>, both pitches generated whiff rates north of 45%.  After losing their weekend rotation, and top three innings leaders, to the MLB draft in the aforementioned Smith, as well as Brady Tygart (12th round, Boston Red Sox) and Mason Molina (7th round, Milwaukee Brewers), Zach Root and Landon Beidelschies are in line for a heavy workload in their first year in Fayetteville.  Beidelschies stands at 6&#8217;3&#8221; 230 pounds with a fastball to match.  Sitting in the low-mid 90s and topping out at 98 mph, <em>Perfect Game</em> has named him as a preseason First Team All-American.  At Ohio State last year, Beidelschies led the Buckeyes with 84 2/3 innings and pitched to a 4.15 ERA while racking up 91 strikeouts.  <em>D1Baseball.com</em> has him as the fifth ranked impact transfer, with Root at second.  After being knocked out in their hosted regional last year and losing their weekend rotation, Coach Dave Van Horn&#8217;s sharp use of the transfer portal provides plenty of optimism for the Hogs to reach Omaha.</p><p></p><p><strong>Defending champion, Tennessee, adds two high strikeout arms.</strong></p><p>Using a mix of homegrown talent&#8212;Drew Beam, Zander Sechrist, Kirby Connell&#8212;and the transfer portal&#8212;A.J Causey (Jacksonville State), Nate Snead (Wichita State)&#8212;the Tennessee Volunteers posted a 3.89 team ERA, good for 6th best in the country and 3rd in the SEC en route to winning the national title.  Their elite pitching production was an excellent compliment to their offense that led the nation in hits, runs scored, home runs, doubles, and a plethora of other key stats.  Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello has masterfully navigated the transfer portal, especially on the pitching side.  A total of 44% of the Volunteers total innings last year came from pitchers that did not start their college careers in Knoxville.  As is expected after a year of tremendous success, the Volunteers lost quite a bit to the MLB draft.  Attempting to fill some of that void are two pitchers with tremendous upside and strikeout ability that need to have their skills honed by Vitello and crew.  <strong>Liam Doyle </strong>comes to Tennessee by way of Ole Miss and <strong>Tanner Franklin </strong>from Kennesaw State.  Doyle&#8217;s freshman year came at Coastal Carolina where he spent most of his time in the bullpen where he posted a 4.15 ERA in 56 1/3 innings and 69 strikeouts.  Following his year at Coastal, Doyle jumped ship the Ole Miss Rebels where his strikeout ability took quite a jump.  Starting 11 of his 16 games pitched, he struck out 84 batters in 55 innings, but an ERA of 5.73 leaves something to be desired.  A fastball that hovers around 93 mph that can touch upper 90s plays extremely well at the top of his zone given his overhand release and 6&#8217;2&#8221; frame.  Currently relying on his fastball over 60% of the time, his secondary offerings need some work.  He has the foundations of a four pitch mix with a low 80s sweeper, high 80s cutter, and a changeup that is rarely used.  Generating a ton of swing and miss on his fastball helped Doyle shut down the Volunteers top ranked offense in his one outing against them last year.  In Knoxville, Doyle shut down his future team over 6 innings, allowing only 3 hits, 3 earned runs, 1 walk, and striking out 10 in an 8-5 Ole Miss victory.  <em>Baseball America</em> ranks Doyle as a preseason Third Team All-American.  If he is able to continue his success with his fastball up in the strike zone and develops at least two of his secondary pitchers, Vitello may have struck gold yet again in the transfer portal.  The second of Tennessee&#8217;s pitching transfers is an  exciting, yet erratic prospect.  Tanner Franklin throws extremely hard, but the issue is that he has no idea where it is going.  His fastball sits in the mid 90s and touches 99, but in 27 1/3 innings last year, he walked 27 batters.  He will likely slide into the closer role next year for Tennessee, a position that was filled by a committee of arms last year.  His preferred secondary offering is a low-80s hammer of a curveball that <em>Prep Baseball Report</em> records having a spin rate between 2800 and 2900, a range that would place him anywhere between 16th and 26th among qualified MLB pitchers for 2024.  His next secondary offering is one that is still finding its footing.  Currently a mix between a slider and cutter, it grades out as below average.  His four seam fastball already features some decent cut, so committing his slider/cutter hybrid into a bonafide cutter would provide him a third pitch that could effectively miss barrels when thrown off of his fastball. </p><p><strong>Texas A&amp;M looks to finally win their first national title off of a strong 2024 Omaha campaign.</strong></p><p>2024 Runner-Up Texas A&amp;M got a major boost to their 2025 season when ace Ryan Prager announced that he would return to College Station instead of signing with the Los Angeles Angels after being selected 81st overall.  To accompany Prager in the Aggies rotation this season, first-year head coach Michael Earley (Texas A&amp;M assistant coach 2022-2024) is bringing in <strong>Myles Patton</strong>, a junior left-hander from Long Beach State.  Patton turned in a strong 2024, posting a 3.26 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings of work with the Dirtbags.  His fastball sits in the high 80s, touching 90 at times, but his short arm action hides the ball well and creates a good amount of deception.  His calling card is a low 80s, two-plane breaking ball that generates a good amount of swing and miss.  His changeup still needs some work, but with his ability to locate the fastball to both sides of the plate, he sets himself up well for his secondary offerings to play off of it.      </p><p></p><p><strong>Auburn Tigers poach Florida pitcher looking to bounce back in 2025.</strong></p><p>Despite reaching a Super Regional in 2024, it is fair to say that the Florida Gators underperformed last season and their pitching was a major reason why.  Despite their top three pitchers by innings pitched being drafted, the Gators sputtered to a 36-30 record and a 6.05 team ERA, worst in the SEC.  One of their worst offenders was sophomore pitcher<strong> Cade Fisher</strong>.  After posting a 3.10 ERA in 49 1/3 innings as a freshman in 2023, Fisher&#8217;s ERA ballooned to 7.13 in 59 1/3 innings during his 2024 sophomore campaign.  His WHIP also increased from 1.297 to 1.618.  Where Fisher shows promise is his ability to miss bats.  Despite not having an overpowering arsenal, he was able to strike out 76 hitters in 2024, good for a K/9 of 11.5; largely relying on a fastball that sits right around 90 mph that gets good armside run and a high 70s/low 80s slider that has the potential to be his best pitch.  His changeup is a distant third pitch in terms of usage, but flashes above average in the mid 80s.  Fisher departs from the Gators, but stays in the SEC where he heads to Auburn.  Despite Florida&#8217;s recent success in producing high round pitching draft picks&#8212;Jac Caglianone (TWP), Hurston Waldrep, Brandon Sproat, Hunter Barco&#8212;a fresh start may be just what Fisher needs.  The Tigers have been no slouches in developing pitchers either with nine drafted&#8212;five in the top 5 rounds&#8212;since 2022 and a bounceback season can firmly plant Fisher into that conversation.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2025 College Baseball Preview - Jamie Arnold - Florida State Seminoles]]></title><description><![CDATA[Florida State left-hander Jamie Arnold enters 2025 as the top ranked college pitcher.]]></description><link>https://www.harrypaul.com/p/2025-college-baseball-preview-jamie</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.harrypaul.com/p/2025-college-baseball-preview-jamie</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Paul]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 04 Feb 2025 19:23:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:118548,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gCEB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c65195b-b8a3-413d-affb-56ff0dedc209_1650x1100.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">photo via Seminoles.com</figcaption></figure></div><p>Coming off a year in which he received First-Team honors in both the ACC and nationally, Florida State left-hander Jamie Arnold enters his third season in college baseball as the top ranked amateur pitcher and potential number one overall draft pick.  </p><p>Winning the Florida 5A state championship as a high school senior with 91 strikeouts and 2.02 ERA in 66 innings, Arnold came into Tallahassee as a top 50 player in the state, per Perfect Game, and saw immediate innings.  In his freshman year with the Seminoles, Arnold split time between the rotation and bullpen compiling 44 total innings with an ERA north of 6.  Plagued by the long ball and the free pass (1.2 HR/9, 5.5 BB/9), Arnold&#8217;s freshman season left a lot to be desired.  Despite the lackluster numbers, the talent was clearly there, getting Arnold an invite to the Cape Cod League.  It was there that Jamie cut his HR/9 by more than half, allowing only 1 in 18 1/3 innings while cutting his BB/9 to 3.4.</p><p>His success in the Cape carried over into one of the more dominant 2024 seasons of any pitcher in Division I baseball.  Locking down a full-time starter role, Arnold pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with 159 strikeouts and a BB/9 of just 2.2.  Ranking in the top 15 nationally in both innings pitched and K/9 (13.54), Arnold showcased the durability of an ace while proving he can miss bats at an elite clip.</p><p>During the 2024 season, Arnold made 18 starts, completing at least 6 innings in 10 of those outings, including 5 where he completed the 7th.  He also showcased his strikeout ability, reaching 9 or more strikeouts in 12 of his starts.  In a conference that sent eight teams to the regionals&#8212;five of them as hosts&#8212;Arnold remained consistently sharp.  In 66 1/3 innings against ACC opponents, he posted a 3.26 ERA, racking up 101 strikeouts while walking just 15 batters.</p><p>His best game of the season came in a 1-0 loss against ACC foe, Pittsburgh.  In the game, the left-hander threw 7 innings surrendering only 3 hits and 1 run while striking out 17. </p><p>Equipped with a low three-quarters arm angle, mid-90s fastball, and a two-plane breaking ball that saw opponents whiff on it 41% of the time in 2024, it is hard not to be optimistic about Arnold&#8217;s junior season.</p><p></p><p> </p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>